Risks Grow at Two Key Middle East Shipping Chokepoints
The ongoing Middle East conflict is increasing pressure on international freight, with commercial shipping facing heightened risk at both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The most immediate disruption is in the Gulf. Vessel movements through Hormuz have fallen sharply after a series of attacks and merchant-vessel incidents. Some cargo continues to pass through, but traffic remains well below normal levels.
Recent incidents around Hormuz include:
- Attacks on tankers carrying Saudi crude as they left the Strait.
- Merchant vessels reportedly disabled by fire, struck near Iraq, or damaged near Oman and Dubai.
- Further Iranian claims of attacks on vessels near Hormuz, although these have not all been independently verified.
Meanwhile, the Iran-aligned Houthis have resumed attacks on Saudi Arabia and advanced towards territory close to Bab el-Mandeb, the southern entrance to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal trade route.
Recent developments affecting this second chokepoint include:
- Missile and drone attacks on southern Saudi cities and energy facilities.
- Reported fires and temporary operational disruption.
- Houthi forces have captured Yemen’s port of Mokha and are reportedly operating near strategically important islands close to the Bab el-Mandeb shipping lane.
Bab el-Mandeb remains open and vessels are continuing to transit the area. However, the Houthi advance has brought their forces closer to the shipping lane and any further escalation could create significant additional pressure on the Red Sea-Suez route.
The impact could extend well beyond ships operating locally. Higher oil prices may increase fuel costs across ocean, air and road freight services, while carriers may face delays, diversions and capacity constraints as they reassess operations.
There is no confirmed general closure of Jebel Ali or other major Gulf container ports. Nevertheless, with Hormuz already severely disrupted and risks increasing near the Red Sea, Killick Martin is closely monitoring the situation.
